If you’re interested in social media and aren’t already a subscriber to Andrew Chen’s blog, you should be. Today’s post is just one example of why: a companion post to his earlier analysis of user cohort segmentation, Andrew lays out a mathematical model for viral user adoption and attrition over time that makes it painfully clear why apps that don’t deliver compelling user value rarely survive their initial burst of user adoption. In Andrew’s words:
“If your retention sucks, then look out: The new invites can’t sustain the growth, and you end up with a rather dire ‘shark fin.'”
But don’t just take my word for it, do yourself a favor and read him for yourself.