Paul Kedrosky’s Global Economic Forecast

I’ve long been an avid reader of Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed, a “finance” blog covering everything from micro- (e.g., early stage VC and individual stock analysis) to global-scale macro-economics. His recent posts on the global credit meltdown have been some of the best and most lucid writing I’ve come across on the subject, but today’s post is hands-down the most concise and believable macroeconomic forecast I’ve come across.

I encourage anyone with even a passing interest in the subject to read the full text (it’s not long), but here are a few choice quotes to get you started:

  • We are going through a credit crisis sparked by the subprime meltdown. It is broader than that, however, really the tail end of an orgy of leverage and credit creation dating back at least 15 years.
  • The unwinding of all this credit bubble will take longer than most people expect, and the damage will continue to be broader than most expect.
  • S&P forward-year earnings forecasts will come down faster than at any time in recent history. We will see 20% average estimate reductions across the board, leading to a further revaluation of the markets.

And my personal favorite…

  • Obama will win the U.S. presidency.